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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Q: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Yes (3%), No (97%). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Volume: $7.1M

Liquidity: $224.8K

Ends: Mar 31, 2026

YES

3.2%

probability

96.8%

probability

Price History

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Order Book

Bids (Buy)

<1%76103

<1%91193

<1%37350

<1%9111

1%103505

Asks (Sell)

266232>99%

115786>99%

21117>99%

16384>99%

5020>99%

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How Prediction Markets Work

Choose your position: Buy "YES" if you think it will happen, or "NO" if you don't.

Set your stake: Trade with virtual currency. The price reflects market probability.

Wait for the outcome: If you're right, you receive $1 per share. If wrong, you lose your stake.