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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Q: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Yes (8%), No (93%). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Volume: $2.1M

Liquidity: $52.6K

Ends: Mar 31, 2026

YES

7.5%

probability

92.5%

probability

Price History

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Order Book

Bids (Buy)

1%15593

2%62578

3%14109

4%33162

5%66411

Asks (Sell)

681099%

345298%

12897%

51896%

2095%

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How Prediction Markets Work

Choose your position: Buy "YES" if you think it will happen, or "NO" if you don't.

Set your stake: Trade with virtual currency. The price reflects market probability.

Wait for the outcome: If you're right, you receive $1 per share. If wrong, you lose your stake.